Jonathan’s annus horribilis By Festus Eriye

 

 Annus horribilis is a Latin phrase meaning “horrible year.” Its use in recent times was popularised by Britain’s Queen Elizabeth in a speech in November 1992 marking the 40th anniversary of her rule.

She had dug deep for a special phrase to describe a year that shook one of the world’s oldest monarchies to its root. It was a nightmarish period in which the world was treated to the collapse of royal marriages, publication of late Princess Diana’s tell-all book, and a disastrous fire in Windsor Castle, one of the Queen’s homes.

Ever since that memorable speech many other leaders like former United Nations Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, Spain’s King Juan Carlos and others have had occasion to reference that unique expression to describe years that were not too pleasant in their realms and around the world.

To say that President Goodluck Jonathan has had a torrid year is to state the obvious. In 2013 everything that could possibly go wrong went awry for him and his Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Although he sought throughout the year to create the impression that security challenges under control, events in large swathes of the north gave the lie to his presentation. Over the months Nigerians would receive a bloody introduction to hitherto anonymous places like Bama, Benisheikh etc.

As the body count mounted an administration that had tried to project to the outside world that the Boko Haram insurgency was something it could handily crush with its local resources, was forced to declare a state of emergency across three North Eastern states. But rather than stem the tide of terror the measure only seemed to enrage the insurgents and spur them to unprecedented levels of depravity.

So much so the United Nations Human Rights office declared that the sect’s actions amounted to crimes against humanity. Interestingly, a regime that had sought desperately to downplay the gravity of the situation by opposing efforts by the United States government to classify Boko Haram as a global terrorist organization, without any sense of embarrassment was the one of the first out of the blocks with praise after the Americans succumbed to reality.

After making his toughest move with the emergency declaration and ordering lightning air raids on the insurgent camps, the president and his team were rewarded with several weeks of relative quietude. But just when it seemed like peace and safety the insurgents popped up in Maiduguri like some jack-in-the-box object with an audacious attack on military bases and the airport.

It was a spectacular statement that rather than being damaged, the sect was growing in confidence and military capability. The attack featured a long line of pick-up trucks and high caliber guns. Even worse, it was a humiliating experience for the Nigerian military to be worsted in one of its redoubts by what many once sneeringly dismissed as a ragtag bunch of clueless gunmen.

Today, despite throwing everything in its power at the stubborn sect the terror threat remains undiminished. Yes, Nigeria may not be fighting a civil war yet in the manner of Congo, Sudan or the Central African Republic (CAR), still on Jonathan’s watch the security situation has degenerated gravely in 2013.

On the political front it has been a horror movie. For all of its failings the ruling PDP has over the last 14 years always managed to extricate itself from situations that that threatened its existence. But not any more.

No matter how Jonathan or his party may want to spin it, then revolt of the G-7 governors – leading to five of them defecting to the All Progressives Congress (APC) was a catastrophic development. To compound the injury, scores of legislators in the Senate and House of Representatives have followed the example of their leaders.

Knowing the critical role played by governors in deciding presidential elections, the defections may well turn out to be the defining moment – not just of the Jonathan years but of the general direction of the Fourth Republic.

The defections at the National Assembly are just as devastating. For the first time since 1999, the PDP lost the game of numbers in the House of Representatives. With the opposition in control of the lower house Jonathan’s legislative agenda for what is left of his tenure is in jeopardy.

What makes this so remarkable is that these losses were self-inflicted. The five governorships and legislative seats were surrendered without one ballot being cast. It is truly unprecedented. Defections are commonplace in Nigeria politics but rarely on this scale – especially with more movements out of the ruling party anticipated in coming months.

When Jonathan ran for president in 2011, he had a fairly united party behind him. Embittered northern politicians like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Adamu Ciroma, ex-President Ibrahim Babangida and others who lost the zoning battle, simply adopted a siddon look attitude. But they were not urinating in the communal well or hurling verbal missiles at the party’s candidate.

Today, the situation is radically different. The PDP is bitterly divided with internal trust and cohesion destroyed. Those who have not jumped ship are still lobbing broadsides at the president and party chairman, Bamanga Tukur. Clouds of suspicion hang around all who have shown less than unalloyed loyalty to the current powers-that-be.

Parties going into elections understand the need for unity. It would take a miracle for the PDP to go into the 2015 general election with anything that approximates the kind of front it had in 2011. I suspect that for much of 2014 it would be engaged in trying to purge its ranks of “traitors” – an exercise that will not only weaken but also distract it.

It is fitting therefore that a horrible year should close with the explosive and very public falling out with former President Olusegun Obasanjo – the incumbent’s erstwhile godfather. The exchange of toxic letters between the two has been substantially examined by sundry commentators.

Many have suggested that Obasanjo’s antecedents disqualify him from criticising Jonathan in the manner he did. I take a different position. You can call the ex-president all sorts of names, but that does not remove the fact that the bulk of issues he raised in his epistle are part of the incumbent’s record on which he would be running in 2015.

So while Jonathan and his supporters may be congratulating themselves for hurling barbs back at Obasanjo, they miss the point that all their responses and paid adverts have become academic. The former president’s devastating 18-page letter has long gone from an embarrassing correspondence from a frenemy to a template of attack that the opposition will adopt for 2015.

So even if they attack Obasanjo from now to eternity the damage is already done by “a card-carrying PDP member.” It is not necessary to add that a house divided against itself is headed for a dramatic fall.

It is often said that people grow in stature in a demanding office like the presidency. That is hardly the case with Jonathan in 2013. His many wars rather than make him larger than life have reduced him to a defensive figure whose most vociferous defenders are members of his Ijaw ethnic group.

His defensiveness was evident when in response to the APC’s call for his impeachment he accused them of treason – forgetting that impeachment is provided for in the constitution. When Obasanjo raised pungent questions about his rule, he accused him of incitement and endangering national security.

Intimidation and subtle threats are no way to respond to differences of opinion in a democracy. Only the insecure resort to bullying tactics when a robust discussion of issues would suffice.

But by far the most unpresidential remark I have heard this year was the bit in the president’s letter to Obasanjo where he said most of the challenges faced by his administration began under other administrations. So what?

Every administration inherits the problems left behind by its predecessors. People run for office promising to clean up existing mess. What we expect is not an incumbent regaling us with the history of our problems, but getting on with the business of making improvements.

Unfortunately, as 2013 winds to a close Jonathan finds himself in situation where instead of pointing to achievements, he’s whining about what other regimes left undone. He should remember that in 2015 that attitude would not help him much when the opposition starts asking voters: ‘Are you better off today than you were four years ago’?

Nigerians and their fragile ego

Although I was away on a short leave of absence when the late South African President Nelson Mandela was buried, I followed the coverage closely like most people.
Given the impact of the story of his life it was no surprise that leaders from all over were falling over themselves to pay tributes. Everyone was recommending to his neighbour the example of the anti-Apartheid hero, but no one was offering to be this generation’s Mandela.

Frankly, for many who went to South Africa for the burial rites, it was more a chance to get their photo taken or hear their own voices. US President Barack Obama, British Prime Minister David Cameron and his Dansih counterpart, Helle Thorning-Schmidt landed themselves in hot water when they were caught giggling while snapping selfies.

Nigerians, for their part, were infuriated that their president was not given prime time billing. They lost no time in reminding the South Africans of how much this country did to secure their freedom.

To hear some of us talk you would think Nigeria was the only country that helped the South Africans. In reality there are countless thousands from across the globe who supported the anti-Apartheid struggle morally, financially and diplomatically. But you would not find too many of them as demanding of recognition as Nigerians. It just smacks of a lack of humility.

Nigeria’s contribution to the struggle in southern Africa is well documented and cannot be erased from history. We don’t have to keep banging on about our generousity. We may have given them cash, but they shed blood and gave their own lives.

Songs of praise from outsiders are not what we need. Instead of working ourselves into a fit over perceived slights by the South Africans, let’s move on and focus on fixing our country. We’ll feel better about ourselves and the world will respect us more when our country works.